12ki member "Mirai Shoujo" Audition - FINISHED.

[questorminator]

Interesting thought, but that would be suicide for them, I think. Going solo means you'd have to be a really great singer, something Sayashi isn't. Goto Maki can do it because she had the skills and the fans. Riho has the fans but not Goto Maki's singing skills. Graduating one of their popular members before her prime can hit them back big time. Not saying they can't - they can graduate a whole gen if they want to - but Goto Maki's MM was different from Sayashi Riho's MM, and while they can do uber-crazy stuff back then because they were the IT group, they don't have the same luxury now.

[fujii hina]

Also, Goto Maki's solo career didn't exactly soar.
Even after graduating from Morning Musume to focus completely on going solo it was all on decline.
When she fell to 5-digit sales, she was never able to get back up to 6-digits.
So it's career suicide for anyone within Morning Musume to get out now in the hopes of becoming a solo singer in the same style as Ayu or Koda Kumi or Namie Amuro like Maki did.
And just look at the onslaught of idol groups in the Oricon charts.
A true soloist might seem like a breath of fresh air though.
But definitely not a soloist trained to sing like an idol.

[Chibs]

So now that we explored all the possibilities we can suffice to say that Sayu is indeed next in line for graduation, unless a serious illness or injury befalls one of her kouhai.

[questorminator]

Logically, yes. But much still depends on Tsunku's personal definition of "slacking off". But as long as the girls continue working hard, I'm sure they'll be fine.

[Pavlova]

I'm not entirely sure we won't see a kyukki go but let's see. But yeah I think Sayu is next in line.

[Sohee]

Sayu will probably be next in line, but who knows maybe she'll stay for another 2 years and within that time... How do we know Tsunku doesn't wanna do a MaaDuu duo and graduate the two of them? Or RihoAyumi? Or maybe add a kenshuusei or some girls from the 12th gen audition and creates a new group for them? I mean, it sounds unlikely? But it could still happen. I know we're all thinking Sayu will graduate next year (T_T) but for all we know she could stay even longer than that and he might have plans for some other girls.

[AyuHikaru]

I think he's pulling an Akimoto. Akimoto is really good for getting in the news because he says things like "I know 12 girls who are slacking off, they could graduate!" "I'm gonna reshuffle because someone isn't doing their job!" Etc Etc. Saying that kind of stuff draws attention and makes the Wota worried so people buy more stuff.

Do I think the girl with the least amount of fans will go? Never. That's never happened in the history of Morning Musume. If that were true, all of 5th gen would have been gone sometime in 2003-4; Risa, and Ai were not popular at all. Makoto was never popular. Konno probably would have stayed till she graduated in 2006, though. 6th gen wasn't well received either for awhile, Eri didn't even start to get attention of any kind till 2007. Reina was pushed but I wouldn't call her popular and Sayumi kinda hung in the back. If someone would have told the fandom in 2003 that Sayumi would have this HUGE IMPACT 7-8-9 years later, NO ONE would believe you. Miki was, of course, always popular. Now-a-days though, when you think back on the history of Morning Musume, names like "Sayumi Michishige, Ai Takahashi, Risa Niigaki, Reina Tanaka" all stand up there with names like "Mari Yaguchi, Nozomi Tsuji, Maki Goto, Natsumi Abe". Sometimes it takes girls awhile to pop. We actually have no idea, none, what kind of impact 9th, 10th, and 11th gen will have yet. You can kind of see 9th gen START to come into their roles and they've been around for 2 and a half years. 10th gen still has a year left to see that kind of progress, and little ol Sakura? I don't even know what she is gonna be in the future. I can't even guess. Even if these girls don't last like Ai, Risa, Sayumi, or Reina lasted and they, say, last 5 years instead of 10, they aren't even halfway into their tenure. We just have no idea what they will do or how popular they could get in the future.

I foresee early graduations if the girls just do not want to be there anymore. I have this theory that they have to sign three year contracts, all the girls (except Asuka, who lasted 2 and a half years) who graduated had been in the group at least 3 years. Even if they don't sign contracts to that effect, I still feel like 3 years is the acceptable amount of time to then graduate, like an unwritten rule or something. Once 9th Gen hits 3 years, we'll see if any of them actually go. I know there are rumors about Zukki wanting to, maybe that's what Tsunku was hinting at when he said "someone may go before Sayumi" We'll have to see. I'm on the fence about her, actually. I think sometimes she wants to leave and sometimes she doesn't. I really think she's just trying to find her place, which makes her a bit uneven.

[Pavlova]

I thought I had read something to the effect that their initial contract was 2 years, and then renewed year by year.

[TotallyUncool]

I can see how that would fit with just about everyone sticking around for at least three years: Leaving at the end of the first two years would be too much like throwing in the towel, and telling the world that you couldn't take it, so you do your two years, and even if you do feel like leaving, you give it another year, if only to prove to yourself that you can do it.

[Sohee]

Still don't know where the rumors about Kanon wanting to leave come from.
Except for like every other MM fan keeps saying it over and over and over again. Can't say I've read anywhere that they heard someone important talk about it or anything.