[99 to 34] Where is AKB48 headed after a dramatic decline in members? J-POP idols compared to K-POP
Soichiro Matsutani Journalist
1/29(Mon) 5:35
Image is for illustrative purposes only (created by the author using AI materials).
Drastic decrease in AKB members
On January 11th, Bruno Mars held a concert at Tokyo Dome and attracted attention by performing AKB48's "Heavy Rotation."
It seems that this was a service for Japanese fans, but there is a good reason for the choice of this song. "Heavy Rotation," released in 2010, has penetrated the general public and further solidified AKB48's popularity.
However, 14 years have passed since then, and AKB48's presence is weak. The only news is usually the announcement of the members' graduation. Just this year, Yukari Sasaki announced her graduation on the 11th, and Hitomi Honda, who was also active in IZ*ONE, held a graduation concert on the 26th.
In fact, the number of members has decreased significantly since the COVID-19 pandemic. Three years ago, in January 2021, there were 99 members, but now (January 28, 2024), the number has decreased to 34. Furthermore, nine members are scheduled to graduate by the end of the year.
Is AKB48 heading towards its demise?
Hacking the Charts
AKB48 started in December 2005 with 20 members including Atsuko Maeda and Minami Takahashi. They had a permanent AKB48 theater in Akihabara, Tokyo, and the concept was "idols you can meet". However, it took about three years for them to make a breakthrough. Their first appearance at the "Kohaku Uta Gassen" in 2007 was in the special "Akiba slot".
Their real breakthrough came around 2009, when their CD sales exceeded 100,000 copies. Their first CD single to reach number one on the charts was their 14th major album, "RIVER," released in October of that year. Then, in October of the following year, 2010, their song "Heavy Rotation" became a huge hit. Their heyday was from around this time until around 2017, when Rino Sashihara won the general election three times in a row.
However, this was also a time of stagnation and confusion for popular music. Amid a downward trend in the industry, AKB48 increased their presence through the so-called "AKB marketing" method of including bonuses such as handshake tickets with CDs. This was made possible by Oricon's continued ranking of CDs only until the end of 2018. By encouraging fans to buy multiple copies of an artist's album, they strengthened the group's "value outside of music."
AKB48 grew in popularity by legally "hacking" the rigid music charts.
Annual single sales down 87% from pre-COVID levels
However, from the mid-2010s, as streaming services began to take hold and the Billboard charts, which combined multiple music media, became more valuable, AKB48's "popularity alchemy" gradually began to malfunction. This was because they could no longer hack the charts with CD sales.
After that, popular members such as Rino Sashihara and Sakura Miyawaki left the group (2018), a scandal involving NGT48 members being assaulted by fans came to light (2019), and then COVID-19 hit hard (2020). These four factors caused AKB48 to rapidly weaken. It was also in 2020 that the group was eliminated from the Red and White Song Battle, a show they had participated in for 11 consecutive years.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, when handshake events could not be held, CD singles could not be released for a year and a half, and members of other 48 groups could not join AKB. As a result, the number of CD singles sold in the first week was about 1.17 million just before the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020), but since the COVID-19 pandemic, it has remained at around one-third of that, or about 350,000. Furthermore, the frequency of releases has also decreased from four per year until 2018 to two per year.
If we compare the first week sales of CD singles alone, the total for 2023 will be down 87.3% compared to 2018 (695,000 units vs. 5,431,000 units). This means that nearly 90% of CD single sales have disappeared.
If things continue like this, the number of members will be 25.
The number of members has also been declining. At its peak in May 2014, there were 139 regular members, but by January 2021, that number was 99, by January 2022, 83, by January 2023, 70, and now it is down to 34. That's more than 100 fewer members than at its peak.
Furthermore, nine students, including Yuki Kashiwagi, are scheduled to graduate from now on, and if the 18 trainees are not promoted, the number will be reduced to 25. The team system, which consisted of five teams, will also be suspended at the end of April 2023.
Considering that CD single sales have fallen by 90% and the number of members has decreased by one third in three years, it seems reasonable to assume that what is happening now is restructuring. It seems that the group can no longer maintain its former size.
The main factor that pushed AKB48 into a corner was the existence of K-POP. It's not something that many young people, especially women, have been attracted to K-POP for a long time, but it was the COVID-19 pandemic that made this even stronger. K-POP has been able to appeal to fans through its music and has captured the global market, so even if concerts could not be held, it did not cause much damage.
On the other hand, AKB48 and other J-POP idols have strengthened the appeal of their physicality through live performances in domestic spaces, but it is undeniable that they have neglected their music. As music has become globalized, they have continued to move away from trends, such as continuing with old-fashioned rock sounds. Even in Japan, AKB48 has not produced a hit that has penetrated the general public since "Koi Suru Fortune Cookie" in 2013.
ME:I is expected to be a huge hit
The domestic idol scene has changed dramatically due to the influence of K-POP. IZ*ONE, whose members included Honda Hitomi and Miyawaki Sakura, and NiziU, the "Japanese version of K-POP" by JYP Entertainment, became huge hits. XG, a girl group that does not claim to be idols, continues to be a global hit, and Miyawaki Sakura (Sakura) made her third debut as a member of LE SSERAFIM and continues to have an even bigger break than IZ*ONE.
Also, in December of last year, the 11-member girl group ME:I was born from the Japanese version of the K-POP audition program "PRODUCE 101 JAPAN THE GIRLS" and is scheduled to debut in April. This is the girl group that LAPONE Entertainment, a production company by Korean production company CJ ENM and Yoshimoto Kogyo, will be sending out after the breakout groups JO1 and INI.
Moreover, ME:I includes three members who have debuted before: Momona Kasahara, former member of Angerme (Hello! Project), Ran Ishii, former member of Girls², and Kokoro Kato, former member of Cherry Bullet (K-POP). In addition, there is Fuminori Takami, who is a newcomer but has vocal skills on par with Hikaru Utada. Given the track record and abilities of LAPONE and its members, it is certain that they will be a big hit.
From the official X account of "PRODUCE 101 JAPAN THE GIRLS". Momona Kasahara is in the top center, Ran Ishii is second from the right on the bottom row, Shin Kato is on the bottom right, and the second from the right on the top row is the talented vocalist Fuminori Takami.
UNLAME takes on K-POP
In the midst of all this, AKB48 has finally begun to show new developments. That group is UNLAME, a seven-member group that debuted last September. The members were selected through auditions on the program "OUT OF 48" and consist of five AKB48 members (including trainees) and two general participants.
Unlike traditional AKB48, UNLAME places more emphasis on performance, such as dance and vocals. Their goal is to become a competitor to K-POP. And the producer is not Yasushi Akimoto, but Yuki Ichinomiya, who started a venture company. The group started off as a distribution group, not relying on CD sales, and the selection of the members in the first place strongly suggest a clear concept.
The new song "UNLAME" released on the 19th of this month is a style that distinguishes it from the traditional AKB48, with the visuals produced by the magazine "NYLON JAPAN". In the future, attention will be focused on how close they can get to the already popular XG, NiziU, and ME:I.
AKB48 as grasshoppers
UNLAME's approach of focusing on music and performance is a perfectly reasonable one in today's globalized music scene. However, if I had to offer one criticism, it would be that their timing was long overdue.
Five years ago, I interviewed Akari Takahashi, who was a member of AKB48 at the time. She was a finalist in the audition program "PRODUCE 48," which produced IZ*ONE, but she was unable to become a debut member. So I made the following suggestion:
If I may make one suggestion, it would be desirable to create a new group that is based on dancing and singing ability and also envisions overseas expansion.
In other words, it would be an elite team of the entire AKB48 group. The image would be one in which they would not hold concurrent positions with other groups, would hold moderate handshaking events, and would focus on songs and performances, carefully honing their dancing and singing.
What Takahashi absorbed in "PRODUCE 48" and what K-POP takes for granted would be done in Japan as well.
Of course, in that case, the system would be quite different from the conventional 48 groups. A trainer would be stationed there at all times, and songs, dances, and music videos would have to be carefully produced to global standards.
In order for Takahashi to demonstrate what she has brought back, it would be necessary to change the conventional environment itself.
"Takahashi Juri keenly felt the 'difference between Japan and Korea' on "PRODUCE 48"" (January 22, 2019 / Gendai Business)
This is exactly the approach that UNLAME is taking now. However, it took five years from my suggestion. Shortly after this, Juri Takahashi also graduated from AKB48 and moved to Korea, where she continues to be active as a member of the girl group Rocket Punch.
Although there was the COVID-19 disaster, AKB48 neglected to make upfront investments as the music industry changed. As a result, it seems that they only got up the nerve after being pushed into a corner.
This management reminds me of Aesop's fable "The Ant and the Grasshopper." While the K-POP group (the ant) steadily developed the overseas market and reaped great rewards, AKB48 (the grasshopper) neglected to prepare for the future. The seeds of decline were already visible five years ago.
From "charm" to "music"
Next year will mark the 20th anniversary of AKB48's debut. For an idol group to have lasted for 20 years while changing its members may be a sufficient achievement.
But looking back now, there is no doubt that its survival was based on a business model (the AKB business method) that emerged during a period of confusion when music media was shifting from CDs to streaming services. In this business, the system of producing "idols" and the personalities of the individual members were given priority, and music continued to take a back seat.
The current popularity of K-POP can be interpreted as a backlash against that trend. In other words, it is a shift from "idols who are expected to be cute" to "idols who do music properly." The debut of ME:I, which includes re-debuting members and some very talented vocalists, is likely to make this situation even clearer.
On the other hand, AKB48's traditional role as an "idol you can meet" will likely continue in the future as long as the number of members is small. In fact, the majority of people who attend AKB48's live shows today are in their 40s to 60s. After 20 years of activity, fans have become veterans. The feelings of such fans, for whom AKB48 is a part of their daily lives, cannot be easily dismissed.
To sum up, the two-tiered structure is becoming one of UNLAME, which aims to compete with K-POP, and AKB48 as a Tokyo regional idol group. In the current situation, this is probably where AKB48's restructuring is headed.
by Amped » Sat Nov 30, 2024 4:16 am 
